Mode Shift in the 1990s

Summary

After decades in which public transit in New York City lost ridership and market share to the automobile, ridership on subways and buses rose far more rapidly in the 1990s than did auto ownership or auto trip making.

New York City subway ridership increased 34% during the 1990s while the number of autos owned by city residents increased by only 6%--a difference in growth rates of 28 percentage points in favor of the subway. Bus ridership increased 27%, a difference in growth rates with auto ownership of 21 percentage points in favor of the bus.
This represents a remarkable turnaround from trends in the 1950s through 1980s. In each of these decades, changes in auto ownership exceeded subway ridership changes by 18 to 20 percentage points. For example, in the 1980s auto ownership increased by 21% while subway ridership grew by only 2%. (Bus ridership declined by 15% in the 1980s.)
Mode shares shifted from greater auto use in the 1980s and earlier decades to greater public transit use in the 1990s. The automobile's estimated mode share declined by 4 percentage points from 48% to 44% of all trips within New York City in the 1990s, after increasing by 7 percentage points in the 1980s. The subway's estimated market share increased by 2 percentage points to 31% mode share in the 1990s after declining by 3 points in the 1980s. The market share for buses increased by one percentage point to 16% of trips in the 1990s after declining by 5 points in the previous decade.

Mode shift in the 1990s shows the impact of shifting public investment priorities. While public policy focused on expressway building in the 1950s and 1960s, starting in the 1980s major capital investments were poured into improving the reliability, comfort and convenience of subways and buses. Other forces were also critical to mode shift, including increased immigration, drop in the crime rate, increased traffic congestion, increased parking costs and patterns of economic growth, commercial and residential development. These diverse forces combined to bring about New York's unprecedented mode shift of the 1990s.

This experience has several important implications for future public policy decisions. First, it shows that public policy choices and public spending can decisively alter the shape and use of the city's transportation system.

Second, it shows that public investment is most effective when improvements capitalize on social and economic trends and land use policies. Finally, it shows that improvements to existing transit service are just as important as system expansion. Mode shift came about because transit investments focused on the needs of the 1980s and early 1990s--service reliability, personal safety, comfort and fare integration. The next generation of improvements should focus on today's needs and opportunities. These include increasing service levels, relief of overcrowding on buses and trains, speeding up bus travel times, and providing extensive and real-time customer information.

Full Report (Acrobat PDF format; 411 kb)

New York Times article: "In Switch, Transit Ridership Outpaces Cars, Study Finds"