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Rail, Ferry or Bus?

Improving Suburban Access to Lower Manhattan


Rail, Ferry or Bus? Full Report - Schaller Consulting

Table of Contents

Executive Summary. 1

Introduction. 4

The Problem: Poor Commuter Access as a Competitive Disadvantage. 5

Lower Manhattan’s Commuter Access Needs. 8

1. Travel Times. 8

2. Place of Residence of Suburban Commuters. 12

3. Mode of Travel 13

Assessing the Viability of Ferries and Express Buses to Serve Lower Manhattan’s Suburban Access Needs  17

Conclusions. 21

Appendix A: Travel Times to Midtown and Downtown From Selected Suburbs. 23

Appendix B: Workforce. 25

Appendix C: Journey to Work. 27

Appendix D: Commuter Ferries. 28

 

Acknowledgements

 

This report was prepared by Bruce Schaller, Principal of Schaller Consulting, and Alexander N. Cohen, Graduate Assistant. 

 

Mr. Schaller consults to local and federal agencies and for-profit and non-profit organizations seeking to satisfy customer needs in all forms of urban transportation including bus, rail, taxicab, livery and auto.  Prior to establishing Schaller Consulting in 1998, Mr. Schaller was Deputy Director for Marketing Research and Analysis at New York City Transit, Director of Policy Development and Evaluation at the New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, and Senior Economist at the New York City Office for Economic Development.  He has a Masters of Public Policy from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. from Oberlin College.  He is also a Visiting Scholar at New York University’s Rudin Center for Transportation Policy and Management.

 

Mr. Cohen is a graduate student in City Planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He has also worked for the Boston Redevelopment Authority and U.S. Census Bureau, where he collected population and housing data for the 2000 census.  He collaborated on a previous Schaller Consulting report, Commuting, Non-Work Travel and the Changing City.

 

Copyright Ó 2003 by Schaller Consulting                                    www.schallerconsult.com


Executive Summary

 

In the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the Downtown business community renewed its longstanding calls for direct commuter rail service to Lower Manhattan.  Discussion has focused on a proposal to connect the Long Island Rail Road’s Jamaica transfer station to Lower Manhattan.  A similar plan was endorsed by Mayor Michael Bloomberg in his vision for Lower Manhattan.  But the Downtown business community’s plan encountered strong opposition due to its price tag (estimated at $1.9 billion to $5 billion or more) and because it would use an existing East River subway tunnel and thus disrupt subway service.  The issue of suburban access to Lower Manhattan thus continues to be an important and contentious issue.

 

This report seeks to put the debate over LIRR service to Lower Manhattan into a larger context by posing two fundamental questions: (1) What should be the focus of commuter access improvements?  (2) What modes would best serve those needs?

 

Based on a review of past studies of Lower Manhattan commuter access options and available data on travel patterns, we conclude that focusing on direct commuter rail service from Long Island does not address Lower Manhattan’s most critical suburban access needs.  Improving the commute from the Metro North service area north of the city is much more important than improving the commute from Long Island:

§          Travel times from Long Island are relatively competitive between Lower Manhattan and much of Midtown. The travel time difference is only two to six minutes for Long Island commuters destined for East Midtown – the center of gravity for Midtown jobs – as compared with those going to Downtown offices.  Commutes to East Midtown and Downtown are also similar in that commuters must transfer between the LIRR and the subway or bus.

§          Midtown, on the other hand, enjoys a major travel time advantage for suburban commuters traveling from Metro North’s service territory in Westchester County, Connecticut and other northern suburbs.  The travel time difference is 10 to 15 minutes shorter for Metro North commuters working in East Midtown compared with Downtown.  The Downtown trip also requires a transfer to the crowded Lexington Avenue subway or other transportation, whereas most Metro North commuters who work in Midtown can walk to work from Grand Central Terminal on East 42 Street.

§          Surveys of businesses in Lower Manhattan substantiate our conclusion that improved access from north of the city is the most critical need.

§          The significance of differences in LIRR versus Metro North travel times is evident in commuting data.  Twenty-one percent of all Long Islanders commuting to Manhattan work in Lower Manhattan compared with 16% of workers living in Metro North’s service territory.  Suburban commuters who live north of the city are more likely to avoid the long Metro North/subway commute to Lower Manhattan than are LIRR commuters, for whom travel times to Midtown and Downtown are more comparable.

 

Lower Manhattan business interests have focused on achieving direct LIRR commuter access because it is seen as relatively feasible compared with building a direct Metro North connection.  There is no doubt that a direct Metro North connection to Lower Manhattan is a remote possibility at best.  Rail should not be assumed to be the only suitable mode for improving suburban access to Lower Manhattan, however.  Other modes – specifically ferry service – should be considered in addressing the pressing needs for better access to Lower Manhattan.

§          While many people think of rail as synonymous with suburban commuting, in fact, commuter rail accounts for only 44% of suburban commuting to Manhattan (including commuters from the New Jersey suburbs as well as New York and Connecticut suburbs).  Led by extensive bus service from New Jersey that takes advantage of the Lincoln Tunnel bus lane, express buses and ferries carry about one in five suburban commuters to Manhattan.  In thinking about suburban commuting, then, it is important to bear in mind that commuter rail is not the only viable public transportation mode.

§          High-speed commuter ferries from coastal suburbs in New Jersey and Long Island to Manhattan can offer substantial travel time savings over commuter rail service.  A recently discontinued ferry service from Glen Cove, Long Island to Pier 11 at the foot of Wall Street was over 20 minutes faster than an LIRR trip to Penn Station – not even including the travel time from Penn Station to Lower Manhattan.  This and other examples of high-speed commuter ferries illustrates that ferries can offer superior travel times for suburban commuters.

§          The total cost of providing ferry and rail services (when including government subsidies) is roughly comparable.

§          Ferries offer a capacity commensurate with the need.  The handful of high-speed, longer-distance commuter ferries currently operating serve 5,000 passengers per weekday, a sizeable ridership when compared with the 19,000 Lower Manhattan commuters served by Metro North.  Ferries could serve a much higher volume of passengers where demand merits greater service levels.

 

Thus, we conclude that a network of high-speed, high-amenity ferry services between selected suburbs and Pier 11 near Wall Street and/or the World Financial Center offers the opportunity to substantially improve the accessibility of Lower Manhattan.  Ferry service could operate along the Hudson River to points in Westchester and Rockland counties and via the East River to points in Westchester and Connecticut.  Existing service to New Jersey and the North Shore of Long Island could also be expanded.  Thus, current governmental efforts to establish or evaluate ferry service from north and east of the city should be supported and expanded.

 

Ferries offer a number of advantages.  New ferry services can be implemented quickly and with manageable capital costs. Ferries also make full use of Lower Manhattan’s best natural advantage – the business district’s proximity to the water, its compactness and high density of office space.  The large majority of Downtown workers are within walking distance of either Pier 11 on the East River or piers at the World Financial Center.

 

At the same time, high-speed ferry service also raises important issues concerning cost, possible government subsidies and overseeing subsidized ferry services.  The task of siting new ferry terminals is also an important issue. 

 

A second mode also deserves serious attention – express bus service from New Jersey.  More New Jersey residents commuting to Manhattan as a whole take express buses to get to work than any other single mode including commuter rail.  Yet the vast majority of express buses terminate at the Port Authority Bus Terminal on West 42 Street.  The travel time differential to Lower Manhattan as compared with Midtown is greater for these commuters than for LIRR riders.  A few routes serve Downtown Manhattan directly, but the travel times are very extensive due to traffic congestion at the Holland Tunnel.

 

Speeding up express bus service to Lower Manhattan is a challenging task.  The Holland Tunnel’s two tubes are not conducive to adding exclusive bus lanes.  Traffic congestion at the Manhattan approaches and exits to the tunnel are an important source of delay.  Other approaches are worthy of consideration, such as linking express bus service to PATH in Hoboken once downtown PATH service reopens toward the end of 2003 or to ferries on the New Jersey side of the Hudson River.  These options merit further analysis as possible ways to improve access to Lower Manhattan relatively quickly and affordably.

 

In sum, Lower Manhattan’s suburban access needs will not be met with one mode – be it rail, ferry or bus.  Neither ferries nor express buses are panaceas to Lower Manhattan’s transportation needs.  But expanding ferry and express bus service to Downtown offers clear advantages in addressing critical access needs in a timely fashion.  Development of ferries and express buses thus deserve at least as much attention and energy in the planning for Lower Manhattan’s economic recovery as do improvements to commuter rail access. 

 

Introduction

 

Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, much attention has been focused on the issue of improving mass transit to Lower Manhattan.  In February 2003, Governor George E. Pataki announced plans to allocate federal funding for Lower Manhattan to several projects.  The projects include a new PATH terminal at the World Trade Center site, revamping the Fulton Street complex and its maze of subway lines, and connecting both transit terminals with an underground pedestrian concourse. These proposals would rationalize and unite the Trade Center and Fulton Street transportation hubs and create a transportation terminal with a strong identity, similar to Grand Central.

 

The governor's plan will also rebuild the subway terminal at South Ferry and connect the station with the Whitehall Street subway station and a new Staten Island Ferry Terminal. In the South Ferry station, the obsolete single-track 5-car station would be replaced with a 10-car, three-track, two-platform terminal. These improvements would cut down on delays on the 1/9 line and thus speed commuter access between Lower Manhattan and Penn Station, a key goal for Lower Manhattan.

 

These transit projects would tremendously improve the functioning and convenience of several busy transit stations and terminals.  They would not, however, add to the transportation network serving Lower Manhattan.  More ambitiously and more controversially, the Downtown business community has called for direct commuter rail access to Lower Manhattan.  The Downtown business community argues that rail access is crucial for the future of the Lower Manhattan business district.  This stance is the heart of “Key Principles in Rebuilding Lower Manhattan,” a white paper released in September, 2002 by the Alliance for Downtown New York, the Association for a Better New York, the New York City Partnership and the Real Estate Board of New York.”[1]  The white paper argues that “commuter and airport access improvements are essential to maintain and enhance Downtown’s role as an economic engine for the region.”[2]

 

In December, Mayor Bloomberg endorsed the idea of a new tunnel between Downtown and Kennedy International Airport and thus through the AirTrain system connect Lower Manhattan to the Long Island Rail Road station in Jamaica.

 

This report assesses commuter access needs for Lower Manhattan based on currently available data and studies conducted by public agencies over the past decade.  Analysis of this information provides a fuller picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the Lower Manhattan transportation system and helps to identify opportunities for improvement.  We conclude with recommendations about ferry and express bus services that we believe would best address the commuter access problems – and do so relatively quickly and at relatively little cost.  These recommendations are intended to further discussion about improving suburban and airport access to Lower Manhattan in a direction that will be constructive to Lower Manhattan’s economic vitality.  Clearly, additional studies will be needed to further develop feasible and effective proposals.

 

The Problem: Poor Commuter Access as a Competitive Disadvantage

 

Commuter rail access to Lower Manhattan is considered to be particularly imperative because it is seen as a competitive advantage that the Midtown business district has over Downtown.  The “Key Principles” paper states that, “Downtown has lost market share to midtown Manhattan and the suburbs over the past half century, principally due to its poor rail service to areas of the region beyond the city line.”[3]  In his December speech, Mayor Bloomberg declared, “We must invest in making Downtown more accessible – both to the rest of the world and to residents of the metropolitan region.”  Midtown, of course, has direct commuter rail access to Penn Station and Grand Central while Downtown does not.  To reach Lower Manhattan, Metro North and Long Island Rail Road commuters must transfer to the subway and NJ Transit commuters must transfer to the subway, PATH trains or ferries.

 

Calls for commuter rail access are not new.  Lack of commuter rail access has long been seen as an issue that has put Downtown at a disadvantage compared to Midtown.  This position was clearly articulated, for example in the “Lower Manhattan Transportation Access Economic Benefits Study,” a 1996 report prepared for the Empire State Development Commission, the New York City Economic Development Corporation and the Alliance for Downtown New York.[4]  This report presented the results of interviews with “senior representatives of Midtown growth industries, downtown tenants and real estate professionals.”[5]  Interviewees compared the Midtown and Downtown business districts, and Downtown did not fare favorably in the comparison.  According to the report, the interviewees stated that the only advantage for Downtown was “the relatively low cost of space.”  Interviewees cited several advantages for Midtown, including “amenities” such as restaurants and shopping; greater availability of “large floor plates” in Class A office space; and “ease of access” for commuters.  Inferior transportation access thus was seen as one of several disadvantages facing the Downtown business district.

 

When asked to consider possible commuter transportation improvements to improve the competitiveness of Downtown, interviewees desired alternatives that would “significantly reduce travel time and crowding, as well as augment comfort.”  They felt that either “direct commuter rail access” or a “shuttle service” with “seamless” connection to commuter rail would achieve those goals.[6]  Nearly all agreed that “extension of both Metro North and LIRR service would be most desirable,” but that “if only one could be extended, it should be Metro North.”

 

There have been a number of proposals and studies in recent years focused on improving access to Lower Manhattan.  These include calls for a “regional rail system” that would greatly eliminate the transportation differential between midtown and Lower Manhattan;[7] building new rail tunnels to Lower Manhattan to accommodate a pair of “super shuttles” linking Lower Manhattan to Penn Station and Grand Central;[8] and a “Regional Express Rail” that would connect Metro North tracks at Grand Central to Lower Manhattan and the LIRR terminal in downtown Brooklyn.[9]  A full-length Second Avenue subway, now undergoing environmental reviews, would improve access to Lower Manhattan from Grand Central by relieving the severe overcrowding now experienced on the Lexington Avenue line.

 

Attention to Lower Manhattan’s transportation needs obviously intensified after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.  The greater sense of urgency has prompted a search for solutions that would be less costly and therefore more rapidly implemented, than either the Second Avenue subway or any plan involving entirely new commuter rail tunnels.

Brookfield Properties, one of the largest real estate interests in Lower Manhattan, released a study outlining one such idea in February, 2002.[10]  Under the Brookfield plan, a “super shuttle” would run from the Jamaica LIRR station to Lower Manhattan.  Trains would operate along existing tracks – via the LIRR Atlantic Branch from Jamaica to Downtown Brooklyn and then into Lower Manhattan via the Cranberry Street subway tunnel presently used by the A and C subway lines.  A short stretch of new tunnel within Lower Manhattan would bring the shuttle to its terminus in the World Trade Center area and some tunneling would be required to link the two existing lines in Brooklyn. 

 

To make room for the shuttle in the Cranberry Street tunnel, the C train would be rerouted to the Rutgers Street tunnel that is used by the F train.  The C would thus run directly from Downtown Brooklyn to the Lower East Side, bypassing Lower Manhattan.  The A train would not be re-routed but would need to carry riders who currently use the C train to reach Lower Manhattan; these riders would need to transfer to the A train at Jay Street in Downtown Brooklyn.

 

The Brookfield proposal is intended as a cost-effective solution to the Lower Manhattan access problem, but some of the specifics of the plan are not ideal.  LIRR commuters would not need to transfer to the subway to reach Lower Manhattan, but they would still have to transfer from commuter trains to the super shuttle at Jamaica.  The shuttle would make only one stop in Lower Manhattan, so many commuters – particularly those in the Wall Street area – would have to walk some distance to reach their destinations.  More fundamentally, the plan focuses only on Long Island.  It offers no solutions to the problems of access for Metro North and NJ Transit commuter rail riders.

 

While the cost of the Brookfield proposal is said to be less than that of other ideas, it is still considerable, particularly since some new tunneling in Manhattan and Brooklyn would be involved.  John Zuccotti, Chairman of Brookfield Properties, says that the plan would cost $1.9 billion while other reports put the cost at $5 billion or more.[11]  It also has other drawbacks as well, since it would disrupt an existing subway line and require Brooklyn C train riders to transfer to the A train to reach Lower Manhattan.

 

The next section takes a step back from the specifics of the Brookfield proposal and other plans for improving Lower Manhattan commuter access to ask two fundamental questions: what should be the focus of commuter access improvements?  What modes would best serve those needs?


Lower Manhattan’s Commuter Access Needs

 

Several considerations are important to identifying priorities for improved commuter access to Lower Manhattan:

  1. Relative travel times: which geographic markets most need to be better served with quicker travel times?  Specifically, to what suburban locations does Midtown currently enjoy significantly shorter travel times?  After currently planned enhancements are in place, where will travel times to Midtown be significantly better?  These areas should be prioritized when considering Lower Manhattan transportation improvements.
  2. Place of residence of suburban commuters:  where do most suburban commuters to Lower Manhattan live?  Where do commuters to Midtown and other parts of Manhattan live?  Improvements to Lower Manhattan transportation should address the needs of current commuters destined for Lower Manhattan.  Improvements should also address situations where relatively few commuters journey Downtown due to overly long travel times.
  3. Mode of travel: what mode is needed to transport the anticipated volume of passengers?  What modes are cost-effective and can be built in an acceptable time frame?

 

In assessing these questions, we keep in mind the need to identify solutions that can be implemented in a relatively short time period (on the order of a few years, at most, not decades) and at a cost commensurate with the benefits.

 

1. Travel Times

Rail Access

 

Discussion of the Lower Manhattan commuter access problem has focused on differences in travel times to Midtown versus Downtown.  Underlying the discussions is the perception that Midtown commuters can take commuter trains directly to their offices while Downtown commuters must transfer to the subway to reach their destinations.  In fact, transfers often are required to reach Midtown destinations as well and travel times are quicker to Downtown offices from some suburban areas.

 

While Midtown does have direct commuter rail access, much of the service is to Penn Station, a considerable distance from the heart of the business district on the East Side.  To reach the area around the Citicorp building (53rd Street and Lexington Avenue), for example, a subway transfer is required.  Some NJ Transit rail service terminates in Hoboken and transfers are required to reach either Midtown or Downtown.  Downtown commuters on some NJ Transit trains have an advantage because they can take a shortcut to Lower Manhattan by transferring to PATH at Newark. 

As a result, it is not uniformly true that Midtown has better commuter rail access than Downtown.  From some suburbs, access to Midtown is considerably faster than access to Downtown while from others Downtown has a travel time advantage.  The table below illustrates these differences.  All of the suburbs shown are 25 miles from Lower Manhattan “as the crow flies,” and all have commuter rail stations.  The travel times listed in the table below include the total in-vehicle time, including the time spent riding commuter rail and connecting subway/PATH service, but do not include transfer and walk time.

 

 

Relative travel times to Lower Manhattan and East Midtown by commuter rail [12]

 

County

Suburb

Railroad

Difference in Time (min.)

Difference in No. of Transfers

Faster to Midtown

Westchester

Rye

Metro North

10-15

1

Westchester

White Plains

Metro North

10-15

1

Westchester

Irvington

Metro North

10-15

1

Nassau

Bellmore

LIRR

2-6

0

Nassau

Hicksville

LIRR

2-6

0

Nassau

Locust Valley

LIRR

1

0-1

Same to Midtown and Downtown

NJ – Morris

Morristown

NJ Transit

0

0

Faster to Downtown

NJ – Middlesex

New Brunswick

NJ Transit

0-5

0

NJ – Monmouth

Red Bank

NJ Transit

10-12

0

NJ – Bergen

Ramsey

NJ Transit

11-12

1

Rockland

Pearl River

NJ Transit

11-12

1

 

 

Midtown has a major advantage over Downtown only for Metro North service to Grand Central.  Commuters from Westchester (as well as Dutchess and Putnam counties, and Connecticut) have direct access to the East Midtown business district at Grand Central but must transfer to the subway and spend 10-15 minutes of additional travel time to reach Lower Manhattan.

 

In contrast, there is only a slight travel time advantage for Long Island Rail Railroad riders bound for East Midtown versus those bound for Lower Manhattan.  With regards to NJ Transit commuter rail service, there is no advantage for Midtown at all.  Indeed, on some lines, travel times to Lower Manhattan are as much as 10-12 minutes faster than travel times to East Midtown and may even require one less transfer.

 

Thus the problem of better commuter rail access to Midtown than Downtown is most of all a problem of better Metro North access to Midtown than to Downtown.  Proposals that offer benefits only to LIRR commuters, such as the Brookfield proposal for a “super shuttle” from Lower Manhattan to Jamaica, do not address the much greater problem of Metro North access.

 

It should be noted, however, that several recent commuter rail infrastructure improvements favor Midtown, as listed in the following table:

 

 

Recent commuter rail infrastructure improvements with benefits to Midtown service [13]

 

Project

Railroad

Status

Benefit to Midtown service

Kearny Connection

NJ Transit

Completed

Direct service to Penn Station for several Hoboken lines

Montclair Connection

NJ Transit

Completed